The Energy Regulation Board has raised Zambia’s petroleum pump prices for November 2026, with a weaker kwacha outweighing a mixed month for international oil prices.
Petrol will increase to K33.06 a litre from K31.46, while diesel will rise to K34.45 from K33.27, the ERB said Saturday. Kerosene will increase to K32.08 from K29.76, and Jet A-1 to K34.51 from K31.85.
The revised prices take effect at midnight on 31 October and will remain in force until the next monthly review.
Official Zambia fuel prices for November 2026
| Product | October price | November price | Increase | Percentage increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | K31.46 | K33.06 | K1.60 | 5.1% |
| Diesel | K33.27 | K34.45 | K1.18 | 3.5% |
| Kerosene | K29.76 | K32.08 | K2.32 | 7.8% |
| Jet A-1 | K31.85 | K34.51 | K2.66 | 8.4% |
The November increase follows a weakening of the kwacha by more than 3% against the U.S. dollar during the review period, according to the regulator. The currency decline raised the local cost of imported petroleum products and proved decisive even where the underlying international price had fallen.
Petrol’s average international price increased to $125.84 a barrel from $121.58, while kerosene and Jet A-1 rose to $153.22 from $144.00. Diesel went in the other direction, declining to $154.71 from $160.88.
That divergence helps explain why diesel received the smallest increase among the four products. The lower international diesel price absorbed part of the pressure from the weaker kwacha, leaving the pump price 3.5% higher. Kerosene and Jet A-1 faced both currency pressure and higher international prices, resulting in increases of 7.8% and 8.4%, respectively.
How the Fields Energy forecast compared with ERB prices
Fields Energy’s late-October calculation correctly indicated that petrol, diesel and kerosene had crossed the ERB’s 2.5% adjustment threshold.
The model estimated petrol at K32.49 a litre, diesel at K35.04 and kerosene at K31.62. The official prices were within 59 ngwee a litre of each estimate.
| Product | Fields Energy estimate | Official ERB price | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | K32.49 | K33.06 | 57 ngwee higher |
| Diesel | K35.04 | K34.45 | 59 ngwee lower |
| Kerosene | K31.62 | K32.08 | 46 ngwee higher |
The model was closest on kerosene and furthest from diesel, though the difference across all three products remained below 60 ngwee. The average absolute difference was about 51 ngwee a litre, equivalent to roughly 1.5% of the official prices.
The larger error was in our judgment about how the ERB would treat the result. We expected the regulator to keep November prices broadly firm, or approve only a limited increase, because value-added tax is due to return to petroleum products on 1 December. The ERB instead applied an increase across the full product range.
That decision suggests the regulator gave greater weight to the November pricing inputs than to the prospect of two consecutive monthly increases.
Zambia fuel price outlook for December 2026
The November revision raises the starting point for the December fuel-price review, when 16% VAT is expected to return.
Applying 16% mechanically to the new pump prices would take petrol to approximately K38.35 a litre, diesel to K39.96 and kerosene to K37.21. Those figures exclude any further effect from November’s exchange rate and international product prices, as well as any differences in the final tax calculation.
| Product | November price | Price after a simple 16% VAT calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | K33.06 | K38.35 |
| Diesel | K34.45 | K39.96 |
| Kerosene | K32.08 | K37.21 |
The return of VAT could therefore produce another substantial increase in December, even if the kwacha and international oil prices remain broadly stable during November.
For fuel buyers, the significance of the ERB’s latest decision extends beyond the additional K1.18 to K2.32 a litre taking effect now. It also means that any December tax increase will be applied from a considerably higher base.
Frequently asked questions
What are the new fuel prices in Zambia for November 2026?
The ERB set petrol at K33.06 a litre, diesel at K34.45, kerosene at K32.08 and Jet A-1 at K34.51. The revised prices take effect at midnight on 31 October 2026.
How much did petrol increase in Zambia in November 2026?
Petrol increased by K1.60 a litre, from K31.46 to K33.06. That represents an increase of approximately 5.1%.
How much did diesel increase in Zambia in November 2026?
Diesel increased by K1.18 a litre, from K33.27 to K34.45. That represents an increase of approximately 3.5%.
Why did the ERB increase fuel prices?
The ERB cited a depreciation of more than 3% in the kwacha and changes in international petroleum prices. Petrol, kerosene and Jet A-1 international prices rose, while diesel’s international price declined.
What could fuel cost in Zambia in December 2026?
A simple application of 16% VAT to the November prices would produce approximately K38.35 a litre for petrol, K39.96 for diesel and K37.21 for kerosene. The official December prices will also depend on November’s exchange rate, international petroleum prices and the final tax calculation.
How accurate was the Fields Energy forecast?
Fields Energy correctly forecast an increase across petrol, diesel and kerosene. The estimates were within 59 ngwee a litre of the official ERB prices, with an average absolute difference of about 51 ngwee.
Sources
- Energy Regulation Board: Revision of Petroleum Pump Prices for November 2026, press release issued 31 October 2026
- Energy Regulation Board: October 2026 Pump Price Build-Up
- Bank of Zambia: daily exchange rates
- Energy Regulation Board: Review of Petroleum Pump Prices for October 2026, confirming the reinstatement of VAT on 1 December 2026
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