Zambia Fuel Prices in November 2026: What the ERB Formula Indicates
The Energy Regulation Board’s (ERB) monthly fuel price review in Zambia relies on market data that is largely complete before the new pump price is published. For fuel buyers, that creates a useful window in which the direction and likely size of the November 2026 adjustment can be estimated.
This is an estimate by Fields Energy, not a statement by the Energy Regulation Board. The ERB’s announcement sets the price.
Last updated 21 October 2026.
Zambia’s fuel-price build-up contains more than a dozen components, although the monthly outcome is driven mainly by two: the kwacha’s exchange rate and the international prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene. Both are averaged over the preceding calendar month. By the time the Energy Regulation Board announces a price in early November, the October data on which it relies has already been recorded.
We rebuilt the calculation from Statutory Instrument 77 of 2024 and the ERB’s October 2026 wholesale and pump-price build-ups, then applied the September inputs used in that review. The model returned K31.46 a litre for petrol, K33.27 for diesel and K29.76 for kerosene, matching the published prices to the ngwee.
The exercise shows why Zambia’s monthly fuel adjustment is more observable than it may appear. The announcement comes at the end of a process whose important market inputs can be followed as they develop.
How the ERB calculates the monthly fuel price
Regulation 3(3) requires each monthly review to use the previous calendar month’s actual values. November’s price therefore reflects October’s average exchange rate and October’s average product prices. Changes in oil or the kwacha after October closes belong to the following review.
This backward-looking structure makes the timing unusually helpful for buyers. During the month, each additional trading day improves the estimate. By the third week, the direction is often becoming clear; by the final trading day, the remaining uncertainty is concentrated in the precise product-price assessment and whether the calculated change crosses the ERB’s publication threshold.
Most of the other items in the build-up are stable. Excise duty, oil-marketing-company and dealer margins, levies, the 0.7% ERB fee and the K150-per-cubic-metre strategic-reserves charge are fixed in kwacha and generally change only through policy. From 1 December 2026, 16% value-added tax will be added to the total, creating a separate policy-driven effect on the pump price.
Two variables drive the monthly adjustment
International product prices supply the first major variable. The ERB uses Platts’ Arab Gulf assessments: Mogas 92 for petrol, 0.05% sulphur gasoil for diesel and jet/kerosene for kerosene. The daily assessments are averaged over the month and converted from dollars per barrel. A supplier premium of roughly $160 to $220 a tonne is added, though it tends to vary less than the underlying product price.
The exchange rate supplies the second variable, and its treatment can magnify the latest monthly change. The ERB begins with the Bank of Zambia’s retail selling rate, averaged across the month’s trading days, then applies the slate-rate formula in Regulation 3(9): twice the latest monthly average minus the previous month’s average.
For the October 2026 review, the kwacha averaged K19.12 to the dollar in August and K19.66 in September. Applying the slate-rate formula produced K20.20: twice K19.66, less K19.12. September’s 54-ngwee depreciation was therefore carried forward once more in the pricing exchange rate.
The same mechanism can work in the opposite direction during a steadier month. If the kwacha were to average K19.66 again, the next slate rate would fall from K20.20 to K19.66, reducing the exchange-rate input by about 2.7% while the observed monthly average remained unchanged. A stable currency can therefore exert downward pressure on the next calculation when the preceding slate rate incorporated depreciation.
The ERB’s 2.5% rule adds another layer. A revised price is calculated each month and published when it differs from the prevailing pump price by at least 2.5%. Smaller changes are carried forward, allowing a gap to accumulate between the calculated price and the price displayed at the pump.
This explains why an announcement can appear larger than the market changes immediately preceding it. Product prices may rise modestly and the kwacha may weaken without triggering a reset in the first month. A further change in the same direction can then take the accumulated difference beyond 2.5%, bringing several weeks of underlying change into a single published adjustment.
It also explains why calling the market direction is only part of the forecast. A higher calculated cost may still leave the pump price unchanged when the difference remains below the threshold. The current retail price, the newly calculated price and the distance between them all matter.
Our November 2026 fuel price prediction
The latest calculation for the November 2026 review points to higher underlying prices for petrol, diesel and kerosene, though each remains below the ERB’s 2.5% threshold. Petrol is computed at K32.00 a litre, 1.7% above the current K31.46. Diesel is computed at K33.88, an increase of 1.8% from K33.27, while kerosene reaches K30.42, 2.2% above K29.76.
| Product | Computed (K/litre) | Current (K/litre) | Change | Predicted effective price (K/litre) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 32.00 | 31.46 | 1.7% | 31.46 |
| Diesel | 33.88 | 33.27 | 1.8% | 33.27 |
| Kerosene | 30.42 | 29.76 | 2.2% | 29.76 |
On these figures, the threshold is not reached for any product, leaving the predicted effective prices unchanged at K31.46 for petrol, K33.27 for diesel and K29.76 for kerosene. Kerosene sits closest to the trigger, at 2.2%, so a relatively small change in the final input data could alter that outcome.
What the model tells us about the November 2026 review
October provides a useful test of how closely the published method can be reproduced. Using September’s exchange rate and product prices with the parameters disclosed in the October build-ups generated the official petrol and diesel prices exactly. The kerosene result also matched; its conversion factor and retail build-up were solved from the October documents, so that result confirms the fit of the model.
For the next review, the principal readings are October’s average Bank of Zambia retail selling rate and the monthly averages for the relevant Arab Gulf products. The Bank of Zambia publishes the exchange rate daily. Platts is a paid service, while ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil and NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures can provide working proxies when converted into dollars per barrel and adjusted for their usual difference from the Arab Gulf assessments.
As the month progresses, those averages can be entered into the ERB formula and compared with the prevailing pump price. The result gives buyers a range for the next adjustment and shows whether the 2.5% threshold is likely to be reached.
The final ERB figure will depend on the completed monthly averages and the precise official inputs. By then, however, the forces behind it will have been visible for weeks. For businesses purchasing fuel in volume, the announcement can serve as confirmation of a change already reflected in their procurement and pricing plans.
Frequently asked questions
Will fuel prices change in Zambia in November 2026?
Our model points to no change. Petrol, diesel and kerosene are each computed below the ERB’s 2.5% threshold, so we expect pump prices to stay at K31.46, K33.27 and K29.76 a litre.
When does the ERB announce the November 2026 fuel prices?
The ERB announces the November price in early November. It is based on October’s average exchange rate and October’s average product prices.
What is the ERB’s 2.5% rule?
The ERB calculates a revised price each month and publishes it only when it differs from the current pump price by at least 2.5%. Smaller changes are carried forward and can build up into a larger later adjustment.
How does the exchange rate affect Zambia’s fuel price?
The ERB uses the Bank of Zambia’s retail selling rate, averaged over the month, in a slate formula of twice the latest monthly average minus the previous month’s average. A weakening kwacha therefore raises the next price, and a steady kwacha after a weak month can lower it.
Source
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